Former UCLA stars ready to shine

Basketball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Labor Day has passed, the kids are back in school and the leaves will soon begin to fall here in the northeast.

That means the calendar has flipped to September and most of America is gearing up for football and postseason baseball.

Here on the basketball beat, we are still seven weeks away from the NBA season and still firmly focused on the FIBA World Championships in Turkey. Personnel moves have slowed to a trickle and while there are a few key contributors left on the open market, most of the NBA's general managers have built the foundation for their respective teams and mapped out a strategy for the 2010-11 season.

Typically, contenders try to tweak a few things here and there, while the pretenders cry "salary cap constraints," and make plans to take a few steps backwards in hopes of landing the No. 1 pick in the upcoming draft, a prize that figures to be either North Carolina's Harrison Smith or Baylor's Perry Jones next summer.

This year, however, things have been a bit different. With their eyes on the prize and the NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers, Pat Riley and the Miami Heat completely revamped their club, pulling off one of the biggest coup's in NBA history by luring LeBron James and Chris Bosh to South Beach to play alongside Dwayne Wade.

Meanwhile, the two-time defending champs went the more traditional route, convincing Phil Jackson to stay on as head coach and tweaking a veteran-laden roster by adding defensive-minded role players like Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff.

Players like James, Bosh, Wade and Kobe Bryant are constants, however. You know they are going to be good -- real good. By and large, you even know what veteran complementary pieces like Barnes and Ratliff are going to offer.

The fun stuff starts with young players poised for vast improvement. In fact, every year a group of players really elevates their games. Some are surprises and some are expected to reach that next level.

Here's one man's view of the five players that are ready to take the next step in 2010-11:

1. - Kevin Love - power forward - Minnesota Timberwolves - I've always "Love'd" Kevin's game dating back to his days at UCLA. With Al Jefferson being shipped out to Salt Lake City, Love will get every opportunity to be the focal point of Kurt Rambis' interior group. Love hasn't garnered a ton of minutes for Team USA over in Istanbul but he makes the most out of every single second Mike Krzyzewski gives him and has outplayed the team's other big men -- Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler. Love has a top-tier basketball IQ, is a plus rebounder and plays defense with the kind of effort coaches crave. Offensively, he's deadly with the medium-range stuff and can stretch out to 20-feet or so. Health is the only concern when talking about Love. He missed the first 18 games last season with a broken hand.

2. - Jrue Holiday - point guard - Philadelphia 76ers - The book on Holiday before the 2009 draft was the cliched "raw with the huge upside." Normally, I shrug off talk like that since it's become commonplace among NBA personnel people. But one longtime scout who I respect assured me Holiday would be the best point guard from that '09 draft in five years, a bold statement considering Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson and Darren Collison also went in Holiday's class. When the Sixers turned the keys over to Holiday last season, you could see exactly what all the fuss was about. A true quarterback that thinks pass first, Holiday is already one of the top 10 defensive point guards in the league. Experience should turn the former UCLA guard into an All-NBA defender and a more consistent jumper could turn him into an All-Star.

3. - Blake Griffin - power forward - Los Angeles Clippers - Griffin, of course, missed his entire rookie season after suffering a stress fracture in his left knee. You always have to be concerned with leg injuries when you are talking about bigs and the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Griffin plays with the sort of recklessness that will put enormous stress on his body. That said, a stress fracture isn't going to affect Griffin's rare work ethic and outstanding athleticism. He lacks polish on the low post and isn't the can't-miss franchise guy like a James or Dwight Howard, but Griffin should team with Chris Kaman and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu to give new Clips coach Vinny Del Negro an imposing frontcourt.

4. - Rodrigue Beaubois - swing guard - Dallas Mavericks - The Mavs need to get younger and Beaubois flashed some serious athletic skills during limited playing time in his rookie season. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry aren't exactly ready to step aside but Beaubois offers a change of pace that could be a shock to the system of the opposition if he plays with consistent effort.

5. - Darren Collison - point guard - Indiana Pacers - Collison, another former UCLA star, was really good while filling in for the injured Chris Paul during his rookie year in the Big Easy. However, with Paul entrenched for now in New Orleans, the Hornets dealt Collison to Indiana where the second-year player now has an opportunity to grow with one of the game's best young scorers, Danny Granger. Collison probably doesn't have the size or strength to hold-up on the defensive end on a consistent basis but he's already proven he has the ability to run a team and get his own shot.

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NFL Football Betting


BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES

It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.

BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES

All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.

COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES

Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.

TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES

Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.

RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.

PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.

JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES

Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.

SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES

I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.

VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES

Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.

DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES

Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.

SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES

I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.

BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES

Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.

BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES

Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.

RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES

A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.

PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers

Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.

Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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